Rennes 5-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 72%, yet in-form Saint Etienne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rennes vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rennes welcome Saint Etienne to Roazhon Park in Ligue 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rennes have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Rennes have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rennes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Saint Etienne stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Saint Etienne have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Rennes's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Rennes, 0 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2022, ended Rennes 2–0 Saint Etienne — a Rennes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 61% versus Saint Etienne 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 56% | Saint Etienne 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.41 xG and Saint Etienne 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.994 / defence 0.883 | Saint Etienne attack 0.676 / defence 1.648. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.384. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.648 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rennes's projected output up. Saint Etienne's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Rennes's last 46 games and Saint Etienne's last 12.
Result probabilities: Rennes 72% | Draw 17% | Saint Etienne 11%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.38 | Draw 6.01 | Saint Etienne 9.12. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (72%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Saint Etienne (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rennes 50% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 72% | Draw 17% | Saint Etienne 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Rennes 2.41 / Saint Etienne 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 0.994 / def 0.883 | Saint Etienne attack 0.676 / def 1.648 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Rennes (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Saint Etienne xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Rennes vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Saint Etienne?
Rennes 5 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Rennes vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Saint Etienne part of?
Rennes vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 72% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rennes and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rennes's attack at 0.99x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 46 games and Saint Etienne's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
72%
1.38
17%
6.01
11%
9.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.24
0.83
Saint Etienne xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
9.12
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
9%
11.13
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
101.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Rennes and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Rennes and 0.83 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 12D 19L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.61 PPG from 46 outings (22W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.24 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rennes's home form reads 9W 5D 8L across their last 22 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Saint Etienne's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.26 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 games (1.24 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 22W 8D 16L in their last 46 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Saint Etienne away?
Rennes's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.45 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Rennes or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Rennes have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Dec 2021, when Rennes won Saint Etienne 0-5 Rennes.
Rennes's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Saint Etienne?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 4, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Saint Etienne 0-2 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Saint Etienne?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 68%, Saint Etienne 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Rennes) and 46% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 41%; Saint Etienne in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Rennes's recent matches and 27% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rennes and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Rennes's recent games and 46% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Rennes's recent matches and 73% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Saint Etienne 5-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.41 xG and Saint Etienne 0.83 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.99 / defence 0.88 against Saint Etienne attack 0.68 / defence 1.65, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 72% | Draw 17% | Saint Etienne 11%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 56%, Saint Etienne 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.24 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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