Reims 0-3 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris Saint Germain make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season.
Paris Saint Germain's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Reims, 2.30 for Paris Saint Germain — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reims lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Paris Saint Germain 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 47% | Paris Saint Germain 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.15 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.944 / defence 1.004 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.426 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.035. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Reims games / 49 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 27% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 42%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Paris Saint Germain 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Paris Saint Germain 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 27% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Reims 1.15 / Paris Saint Germain 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.944 / def 1.004 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.426 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Paris Saint Germain xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reims 0 - 3 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 27% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Reims and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (4 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 2 | Paris Saint Germain 2W.
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in?
Reims (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.94) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.43x) against Reims's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
27%
3.76
31%
3.19
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Reims xG
Total xG
2.63
1.48
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.54
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Reims and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Reims and 1.48 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reims's recent record stands at 18W 17D 14L from 49 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain, meanwhile, have gone 34W 7D 8L across 49 games — 2.22 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Reims have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris Saint Germain's away record stands at 17W 4D 3L across 24 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.35 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Paris Saint Germain in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 17D 14L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 34W 7D 8L in their last 49 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.62 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Reims or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 4-0 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
5
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Paris Saint Germain 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Reims and 71% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 58% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Reims's matches and 71% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Reims and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Reims 0-3 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.15 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.48 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Reims fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.43 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 27% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 42%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 47%, Paris Saint Germain 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.