Reims 1-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Montpellier at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reims — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reims have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Auguste-Delaune — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Montpellier away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reims 1.00 PPG, Montpellier 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Reims, 1 for Montpellier and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 54% versus Montpellier 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Montpellier 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.18 xG and Montpellier 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.826 / defence 0.885 | Montpellier attack 0.962 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.297. Data: 67 Reims games / 67 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 37% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 33%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Montpellier 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Montpellier 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 37% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Reims 1.18 / Montpellier 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.826 / def 0.885 | Montpellier attack 0.962 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Reims (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Montpellier xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Montpellier kick off?
Reims vs Montpellier kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Montpellier?
Reims 1 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Reims vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Montpellier part of?
Reims vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 37% chance of winning, Montpellier a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Reims and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Montpellier?
Record (5 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 3 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Reims and Montpellier in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.29
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Reims xG
Total xG
2.29
1.10
Montpellier xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Reims and 1.10 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Reims have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 23W 22D 22L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Montpellier's form line: 23W 15D 29L from 67 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.36 PPG, Montpellier on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.55 PPG from 33 outings (14W 9D 10L).
On the road, Montpellier have gone 13W 4D 16L from 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.51 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 23W 22D 22L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 23W 15D 29L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Montpellier away?
Reims's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.55 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Reims or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Montpellier in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Montpellier runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Reims
5
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Montpellier?
From 10 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Montpellier have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Montpellier 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Montpellier?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 48%, Montpellier 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 54% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Montpellier in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Reims's recent matches and 46% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Reims's recent games and 54% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Montpellier tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Montpellier defy the odds to beat Reims 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.18 xG and Montpellier 1.10 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Montpellier outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Montpellier attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 37% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 33%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Montpellier win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Montpellier 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Montpellier's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.36 PPG, Montpellier 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.