Reims 1-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Reims welcome Lyon to Stade Auguste-Delaune II. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Reims have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lyon — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lyon's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Reims register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lyon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Reims, 0 for Lyon and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lyon trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 58% and Lyon 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 45% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.49 xG and Lyon 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.014 / defence 1.230 | Lyon attack 0.979 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.596. Data: 41 Reims games / 40 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 29% | Draw 24% | Lyon 47%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Lyon 2.13. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 70% | Lyon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 29% | Draw 24% | Lyon 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Reims 1.49 / Lyon 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.014 / def 1.230 | Lyon attack 0.979 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.596 • Poisson stance: Lyon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Lyon xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lyon kick off?
Reims vs Lyon kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lyon?
Reims 1 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Reims vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Lyon part of?
Reims vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 29% chance of winning, Lyon a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Reims and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lyon?
Record (2 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 1 | Lyon 0W.
What form are Reims and Lyon in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Lyon (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.01x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
29%
3.45
24%
4.14
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Reims xG
Total xG
3.41
1.92
Lyon xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
4%
23.63
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Reims and 1.92 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 11W 13D 16L from 40 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 10L across 40 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lyon by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lyon's away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.80 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 70%.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lyon in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 11W 13D 16L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Lyon have gone 19W 11D 10L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.05 PPG; Lyon away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Lyon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Reims
4
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Lyon have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lyon 4-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 53%, Lyon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reims) and 53% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lyon in 32%; Reims have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Reims's games and 58% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reims's recent games and 53% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lyon tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Lyon in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Lyon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Lyon finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.49 xG and Lyon 1.92 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lyon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against Lyon attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 29% | Draw 24% | Lyon 47%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 45%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.