Reims 1-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reims and Lille meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune II: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune II. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune II than their overall form suggests.
Lille have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lille have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Reims, 1.80 for Lille — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Reims, 1 for Lille and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lille — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 49% versus Lille 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 41% | Lille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.22 xG and Lille 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.012 / defence 0.918 | Lille attack 1.015 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.260. Data: 71 Reims games / 71 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 37% | Draw 28% | Lille 35%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Lille 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Lille 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 37% | Draw 28% | Lille 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Reims 1.22 / Lille 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.012 / def 0.918 | Lille attack 1.015 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Reims (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lille xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lille kick off?
Reims vs Lille kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lille?
Reims 1 - 0 Lille.
Where is Reims vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Lille part of?
Reims vs Lille is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 37% chance of winning, Lille a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reims and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lille?
Record (3 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 1W.
What form are Reims and Lille in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.01x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lille's attack (1.01x) against Reims's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.61
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Reims xG
Total xG
2.39
1.17
Lille xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Reims and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Reims and 1.17 for Lille, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 71 games, going 22W 27D 22L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.61 PPG from 71 outings (31W 21D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Reims against 1.61 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 12W 11D 12L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.37 points per game from 35 outings (13W 9D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.52 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 62%.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lille in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 22W 27D 22L in their last 71 games (1.31 PPG), while Lille have gone 31W 21D 19L in their last 71 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.34 PPG; Lille away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Reims or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lille in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Lille have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Reims
1
Draws
4
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lille?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Lille have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Lille 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 51%, Lille 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Reims) and 49% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Reims's games and 60% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Reims's recent games and 49% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lille tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Lille in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Lille 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Lille 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.22 xG and Lille 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Lille attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 37% | Draw 28% | Lille 35%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 41%, Lille 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lille's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.31 PPG, Lille 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.