Reims 2-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reims and Lille meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune II: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
Lille have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Lille have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Reims, 1.60 for Lille — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Reims, 1 for Lille and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lille — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 47% versus Lille 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 34% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.00 xG and Lille 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.914 / defence 1.085 | Lille attack 0.830 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.188. Data: 32 Reims games / 32 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 32% | Draw 33% | Lille 35%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Lille 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reims 40% | Lille 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 32% | Draw 33% | Lille 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Reims 1.00 / Lille 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.914 / def 1.085 | Lille attack 0.830 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Lille (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Lille xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lille kick off?
Reims vs Lille kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lille?
Reims 2 - 1 Lille.
Where is Reims vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Lille part of?
Reims vs Lille is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 32% chance of winning, Lille a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Reims and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 0 | Lille 1W.
What form are Reims and Lille in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.91x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.83x) against Reims's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
32%
3.15
33%
3.02
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Reims xG
Total xG
2.07
1.07
Lille xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Reims and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Reims and 1.07 for Lille, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 13D 11L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (12W 12D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Reims against 1.50 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lille in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Lille have gone 12W 12D 8L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.20 PPG; Lille away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Reims or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lille in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Lille have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Reims
1
Draws
4
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lille?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Lille have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Lille 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 47%, Lille 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Reims) and 40% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Reims's recent matches and 60% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Reims's recent games and 40% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lille tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Lille in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Lille 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Lille 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.00 xG and Lille 1.07 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Lille attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 32% | Draw 33% | Lille 35%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 34%, Lille 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.16 PPG, Lille 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.