Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Toulouse travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Paris Saint Germain — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Paris Saint Germain have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Paris Saint Germain have won 2, Toulouse 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Paris Saint Germain 1–3 Toulouse — a Toulouse win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 67% and Toulouse 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 67% | Toulouse 56%). Note also that Toulouse surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Paris Saint Germain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 100% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xG and Toulouse 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.398 / defence 0.874 | Toulouse attack 1.069 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.419. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack rating of 1.398 — their 1.62 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Toulouse bring a tight defence (rating 0.754, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Paris Saint Germain's projected output down. Data: built from Paris Saint Germain's last 45 games and Toulouse's last 45.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 44% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 31%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 2.28 | Draw 3.97 | Toulouse 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris Saint Germain 80% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 44% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.62 / Toulouse 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.398 / def 0.874 | Toulouse attack 1.069 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Toulouse xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 44% chance of winning, Toulouse a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris Saint Germain's last 45 games and Toulouse's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.97
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.94
1.33
Toulouse xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.33 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 31W 12D 2L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 15W 13D 17L from 45 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Toulouse.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.18 PPG from their last 22 home games (14W 6D 2L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 10W 4D 8L from their last 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Paris Saint Germain (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 31W 12D 2L in their last 45 games (2.33 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Toulouse away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.18 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Toulouse in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Aug 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won Toulouse 0-3 Paris Saint Germain.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 73%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Paris Saint Germain and 54% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 9% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 50% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 54% of Toulouse's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 77% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Toulouse 3-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xG and Toulouse 1.33 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Toulouse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.40 / defence 0.87 against Toulouse attack 1.07 / defence 0.75, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 44% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 31%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Toulouse's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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