Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Paris Saint Germain travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 20:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris Saint Germain are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Paris Saint Germain in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Nice, 4 for Paris Saint Germain and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nice 63% and Paris Saint Germain 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 56% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.16 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.901 / defence 1.374 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.217 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.169. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Nice games / 59 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 22% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 56%. Fair-value odds: Nice 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Paris Saint Germain 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 60% | Paris Saint Germain 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 22% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Nice 1.16 / Paris Saint Germain 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.901 / def 1.374 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.217 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Paris Saint Germain xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nice 0 - 4 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 22% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nice and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (9 meetings): Nice 3W | Draws 2 | Paris Saint Germain 4W.
What form are Nice and Paris Saint Germain in?
Nice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.90) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
22%
4.48
22%
4.57
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Nice xG
Total xG
3.12
1.96
Paris Saint Germain xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
3%
31.63
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Nice and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nice and 1.96 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nice come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 15D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.39 PPG from 59 outings (44W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nice's home form reads 15W 9D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.20 points per game from 30 outings (20W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.47 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Paris Saint Germain in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 44W 9D 6L in their last 59 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.80 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Nice or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Paris Saint Germain runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
2
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 57%, Paris Saint Germain 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nice) and 60% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Nice's games and 70% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nice's matches and 60% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Nice and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Nice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Nice 0-4 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.16 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.96 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Nice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.90 / defence 1.37 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.22 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 22% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 56%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 56%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.