Nice 1-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Marseille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Nice welcome Marseille to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Ligue 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Marseille have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Nice) versus 1.80 (Marseille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Marseille in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 30% versus Marseille 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 60% | Marseille 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.52 xG and Marseille 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.228 / defence 1.157 | Marseille attack 0.797 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.212. Data: 10 Nice games / 10 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 43% | Draw 33% | Marseille 24%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Marseille 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nice 60% | Marseille 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 43% | Draw 33% | Marseille 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Nice 1.52 / Marseille 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.228 / def 1.157 | Marseille attack 0.797 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Nice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Marseille xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Marseille kick off?
Nice vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Nice vs Marseille?
Nice 1 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Nice vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Nice vs Marseille part of?
Nice vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 43% chance of winning, Marseille a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nice and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Marseille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nice and Marseille in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Marseille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.23x the league average against Marseille's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
43%
2.33
33%
3.04
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Nice xG
Total xG
2.63
1.12
Marseille xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
5%
18.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nice and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Nice and 1.12 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Nice have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 2L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille's form line: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 2.00 PPG, Marseille on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nice have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Nice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Marseille have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.80 scored and 1.10 conceded. Marseille's attacking output running into Nice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Marseille in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Marseille in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Marseille have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Marseille away?
Nice's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 2.50 PPG; Marseille away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Nice or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Marseille in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Marseille runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2025, when Marseille won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
3
Draws
4
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Marseille?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Marseille have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Marseille 1-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 75%, Marseille 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Nice and 25% for Marseille. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Marseille in 50%; Marseille in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Nice's recent matches and 25% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nice's matches and 25% of Marseille's.
Do Nice and Marseille tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Marseille in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice and Marseille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 3, as Nice and Marseille drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.52 xG and Marseille 1.12 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against Marseille attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 43% | Draw 33% | Marseille 24%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 60%, Marseille 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Marseille's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 2.00 PPG, Marseille 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.