Nice 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Le Havre travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 0.90 PPG, Le Havre 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Nice, 2 for Le Havre and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Le Havre trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 63% versus Le Havre 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 58% | Le Havre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.36 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.817 / defence 1.447 | Le Havre attack 0.730 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.187. Data: 62 Nice games / 62 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 39% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 34%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Nice 50% | Le Havre 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 39% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Nice 1.36 / Le Havre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.817 / def 1.447 | Le Havre attack 0.730 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Nice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Le Havre xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Le Havre kick off?
Nice vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Le Havre?
Nice 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Nice vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Le Havre part of?
Nice vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 39% chance of winning, Le Havre a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nice and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Havre?
Record (5 meetings): Nice 3W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 2W.
What form are Nice and Le Havre in?
Nice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
39%
2.58
27%
3.66
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Nice xG
Total xG
2.61
1.25
Le Havre xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nice and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Nice and 1.25 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 15D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.00 PPG from 62 outings (16W 14D 32L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.40 PPG, Le Havre on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nice's home form reads 15W 8D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (8W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.02 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 24W 15D 23L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 16W 14D 32L in their last 62 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Le Havre away?
Nice's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.77 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nice
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nice 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Le Havre?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 53%, Le Havre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Nice) and 43% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Nice's recent matches and 50% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Nice's recent games and 43% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Le Havre tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 29, as Nice and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.36 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.82 / defence 1.45 against Le Havre attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 39% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 34%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 58%, Le Havre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.40 PPG, Le Havre 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.