Nantes 3-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Nantes take on Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to take on Nantes. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 2W 1D 3L from 6 Ligue 1 matches — 1.17 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantes have posted 1W 0D 2L at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 0W 4D 2L from 6 outings — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Brestois 29's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nantes 1.17 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 0.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantes 33% and Stade Brestois 29 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantes 17% | Stade Brestois 29 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.00 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.734 / defence 1.058 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.758 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.413. Nantes's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Nantes games / 6 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 28% | Draw 38% | Stade Brestois 29 35%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Stade Brestois 29 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nantes 0% | Stade Brestois 29 100%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 28% | Draw 38% | Stade Brestois 29 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Nantes 1.00 / Stade Brestois 29 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.734 / def 1.058 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.758 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Stade Brestois 29 xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Nantes 3 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 28% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 0W-4D-2L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.83 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nantes's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Stade Brestois 29's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.60
38%
2.66
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Nantes and 1.13 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantes's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 2L across 6 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nantes by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantes are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 100%.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Nantes's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.00 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Nantes won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nantes
4
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Nantes 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 0%, Stade Brestois 29 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Nantes and 33% for Stade Brestois 29.
On the defensive side: Nantes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nantes have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Nantes's recent matches and 100% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nantes's recent games and 33% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Stade Brestois 29 3-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.00 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 28% | Draw 38% | Stade Brestois 29 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 17%, Stade Brestois 29 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nantes arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.