Nantes 1-2 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Paris FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nantes face Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Paris FC travel to Stade de la Beaujoire to take on Nantes in Ligue 1 (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Nantes have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nantes at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Paris FC — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Paris FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nantes 0.80 PPG, Paris FC 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Nantes have won 1, Paris FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Nantes 2–1 Paris FC — a Nantes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Paris FC trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 59% versus Paris FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 43% | Paris FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.35 xG and Paris FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.801 / defence 1.262 | Paris FC attack 0.888 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.234. Nantes's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Paris FC's projected output up. Data: built from Nantes's last 51 games and Paris FC's last 17.
Result probabilities: Nantes 36% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.75 | Draw 3.90 | Paris FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nantes's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantes 40% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Sunday 18 January 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 36% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Nantes 1.35 / Paris FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.801 / def 1.262 | Paris FC attack 0.888 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Paris FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantes vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Nantes vs Paris FC kick off?
Nantes vs Paris FC kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Paris FC?
Nantes 1 - 2 Paris FC.
Where is Nantes vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Paris FC part of?
Nantes vs Paris FC is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 36% chance of winning, Paris FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nantes and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nantes vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nantes's attack rating (0.80) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nantes's last 51 games and Paris FC's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
36%
2.75
26%
3.90
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.73
1.38
Paris FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantes vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nantes and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Nantes and 1.38 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantes's recent record stands at 11W 17D 23L from 51 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 16L across 51 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 6W 8D 11L from their last 25 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 9W 6D 10L across their last 25 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantes are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Nantes (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantes
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Nantes vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Nantes and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 11W 17D 23L in their last 51 games (0.98 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 25W 10D 16L in their last 51 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.04 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Nantes or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nantes
0
Draws
1
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantes vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Paris FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantes have won 1, Paris FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: Nantes 1-2 Paris FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 48%, Paris FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Nantes) and 48% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 32%; Nantes have failed to score in 32% of games; Paris FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantes vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantes and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nantes's recent matches and 52% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nantes and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Nantes's recent games and 48% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Nantes's recent matches and 72% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Nantes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Nantes 1-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.35 xG and Paris FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Paris FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 36% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 38%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 43%, Paris FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Paris FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 18
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →