Montpellier 0-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rennes (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Montpellier face Rennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Montpellier and Rennes meet at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:05 UTC.
Current Form
Montpellier's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Montpellier at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rennes have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rennes's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rennes are 0.70 PPG clear of Montpellier in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Montpellier lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Montpellier winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 60% versus Rennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 65% | Rennes 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.21 xG and Rennes 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.009 / defence 1.262 | Rennes attack 0.940 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.253. Data: 43 Montpellier games / 43 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 30% | Draw 27% | Rennes 43%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Rennes 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 70% | Rennes 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 30% | Draw 27% | Rennes 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Montpellier 1.21 / Rennes 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.009 / def 1.262 | Rennes attack 0.940 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Rennes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Rennes xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Rennes kick off?
Montpellier vs Rennes kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Rennes?
Montpellier 0 - 0 Rennes.
Where is Montpellier vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Rennes part of?
Montpellier vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 30% chance of winning, Rennes a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Montpellier and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Rennes?
Record (4 meetings): Montpellier 1W | Draws 0 | Rennes 3W.
What form are Montpellier and Rennes in?
Montpellier (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Rennes (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Montpellier's attack rating (1.01) and Rennes's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rennes's attack (0.94x) against Montpellier's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.67
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.70
1.49
Rennes xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.49 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 16W 7D 20L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rennes's form line: 22W 9D 12L from 43 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rennes are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Montpellier.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Attack vs Defence
Montpellier are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.84 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Montpellier have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Early Season
Rennes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Rennes in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 16W 7D 20L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Rennes have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Rennes away?
Montpellier's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.19 PPG; Rennes away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Rennes in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Rennes have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 0-4 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Montpellier have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Montpellier
1
Draws
6
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Rennes?
From 8 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 1, Rennes have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Montpellier 0-4 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Montpellier, 71% for Rennes — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Montpellier and 52% for Rennes. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Montpellier's games and 71% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Montpellier's matches and 52% of Rennes's.
Do Montpellier and Rennes tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rennes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Montpellier's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier and Rennes finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.21 xG and Rennes 1.49 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Rennes landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.01 / defence 1.26 against Rennes attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 30% | Draw 27% | Rennes 43%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 65%, Rennes 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Rennes's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.