Montpellier 3-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 54%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Montpellier vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 plays host to Montpellier versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Montpellier (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Montpellier's home record at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Auxerre are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Montpellier 1W, Auxerre 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with Montpellier winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 53% versus Auxerre 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 55% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.85 xG and Auxerre 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.869 / defence 1.126 | Auxerre attack 0.693 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.326. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Montpellier's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Montpellier games / 4 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 54% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 18%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Auxerre 5.56. Montpellier hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Montpellier are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Montpellier if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Montpellier 60% | Auxerre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 54% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Montpellier 1.85 / Auxerre 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.869 / def 1.126 | Auxerre attack 0.693 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Auxerre xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Auxerre kick off?
Montpellier vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Montpellier 3 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Montpellier vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Auxerre part of?
Montpellier vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 54% chance of winning, Auxerre a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Montpellier and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Montpellier 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Montpellier and Auxerre in?
Montpellier (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.87x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.69x) against Montpellier's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.65
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.89
1.03
Auxerre xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
3%
34.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.03 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Montpellier's recent record stands at 10W 13D 15L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 8L across 38 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Montpellier heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Montpellier have managed 3W 10D 6L from 19 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Montpellier are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.82 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 21W 9D 8L in their last 38 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.00 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Montpellier have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Montpellier
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Auxerre 1-0 Montpellier.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 58%, Auxerre 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Montpellier) and 47% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Montpellier have failed to score in 26% of games; Auxerre in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Montpellier's games and 58% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Montpellier's recent games and 47% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Auxerre tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Montpellier edge out Auxerre 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Auxerre 3-2 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.85 xG and Auxerre 1.03 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Montpellier beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Auxerre attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 54% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 18%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 55%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Montpellier winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Montpellier (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.