Monaco 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monaco host Toulouse at Stade Louis II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monaco — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Louis II, Monaco have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Monaco are significantly better at Stade Louis II than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Monaco at 1.40 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Monaco, 0 for Toulouse and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Monaco in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 57% versus Toulouse 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 59% | Toulouse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.60 xG and Toulouse 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.146 / defence 1.217 | Toulouse attack 0.826 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.240. Data: 75 Monaco games / 37 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 44% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 28%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Toulouse 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 50% | Toulouse 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 44% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Monaco 1.60 / Toulouse 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.146 / def 1.217 | Toulouse attack 0.826 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Monaco (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Toulouse xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Toulouse kick off?
Monaco vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Toulouse?
Monaco 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Monaco vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Toulouse part of?
Monaco vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 44% chance of winning, Toulouse a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Monaco and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Monaco 1W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Monaco and Toulouse in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Monaco's attack at 1.15x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.65
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.84
1.25
Toulouse xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Monaco and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Monaco and 1.25 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 39W 17D 19L from 75 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 35W 19D 21L across 75 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.79 PPG, Toulouse on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 21W 7D 9L from 37 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 15W 9D 13L across 37 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.75 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 39W 17D 19L in their last 75 games (1.79 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 35W 19D 21L in their last 75 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Toulouse away?
Monaco's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.89 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Monaco or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Toulouse in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Monaco's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Monaco
2
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Monaco have won 4, Toulouse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Toulouse 2-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Toulouse?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 57%, Toulouse 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Monaco) and 57% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 35%; Toulouse in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Monaco's recent matches and 51% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Monaco's matches and 57% of Toulouse's.
Do Monaco and Toulouse tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Monaco 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Monaco 1-2 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.60 xG and Toulouse 1.25 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.15 / defence 1.22 against Toulouse attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 44% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 28%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 59%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.79 PPG, Toulouse 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.