Monaco 1-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Monaco welcome Rennes to Stade Louis II. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stade Louis II — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Louis II.
Rennes — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Monaco carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Monaco, 0 for Rennes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Monaco in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Rennes in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 54% versus Rennes 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 56% | Rennes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.80 xG and Rennes 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.131 / defence 0.869 | Rennes attack 1.113 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.320. Data: 39 Monaco games / 39 Rennes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 24% | Rennes 27%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Rennes 3.70. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 40% | Rennes 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 24% | Rennes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Monaco 1.80 / Rennes 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.131 / def 0.869 | Rennes attack 1.113 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Monaco (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Rennes xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Rennes kick off?
Monaco vs Rennes kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Rennes?
Monaco 1 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Monaco vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Rennes part of?
Monaco vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 49% chance of winning, Rennes a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Monaco and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Rennes?
Record (2 meetings): Monaco 2W | Draws 0 | Rennes 0W.
What form are Monaco and Rennes in?
Monaco (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Rennes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Monaco's attack at 1.13x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.15
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Monaco xG
Total xG
3.08
1.28
Rennes xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
4%
22.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Monaco and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Monaco and 1.28 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 21W 9D 9L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rennes's form line: 20W 6D 13L from 39 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.85 PPG, Rennes on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monaco have posted 2.11 PPG from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 6W 5D 8L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Monaco are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 2.10 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Rennes in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Early Season
Rennes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Rennes in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 21W 9D 9L in their last 39 games (1.85 PPG), while Rennes have gone 20W 6D 13L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Rennes away?
Monaco's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 2.11 PPG; Rennes away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Monaco or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rennes in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2026, when Monaco won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Monaco
1
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 7, Rennes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Monaco 4-0 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Rennes?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rennes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 47%, Rennes 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Monaco) and 58% (Rennes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Monaco's games and 63% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Monaco's matches and 58% of Rennes's.
Do Monaco and Rennes tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Rennes in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco and Rennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco and Rennes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.80 xG and Rennes 1.28 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Monaco fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against Rennes attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 49% | Draw 24% | Rennes 27%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 56%, Rennes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.85 PPG, Rennes 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.