Marseille 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Marseille at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Marseille vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Estac Troyes travel to Orange Vélodrome to take on Marseille. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Marseille — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Marseille's home record at Orange Vélodrome: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Ligue 1 appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 4L across 7 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Marseille 1.60 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Marseille in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 46% versus Estac Troyes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Marseille 38% | Estac Troyes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 1.68 xG and Estac Troyes 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 0.997 / defence 0.998 | Estac Troyes attack 0.730 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.199. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Marseille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Marseille games / 14 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Marseille 55% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Estac Troyes 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Marseille are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Marseille 57% | Estac Troyes 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 55% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Marseille 1.68 / Estac Troyes 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 0.997 / def 0.998 | Estac Troyes attack 0.730 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Marseille (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Estac Troyes xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Marseille vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Marseille vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
Marseille 1 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Marseille vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Estac Troyes part of?
Marseille vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 55% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Marseille and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Marseille vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Marseille and Estac Troyes in?
Marseille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Marseille's attack rating (1.00) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Marseille's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.63
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Marseille xG
Total xG
2.55
0.87
Estac Troyes xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
30.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Marseille and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Marseille and 0.87 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Marseille come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 5D 2L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Marseille's home form reads 3W 3D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Marseille are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Marseille and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 6W 5D 2L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Estac Troyes away?
Marseille's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 1.71 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Marseille or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Marseille and Estac Troyes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Marseille have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Marseille's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Marseille
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Marseille have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Marseille 3-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Marseille and Estac Troyes?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Marseille see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Marseille 57%, Estac Troyes 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Marseille) and 43% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Marseille keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Marseille have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Marseille play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Marseille's recent matches and 43% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Marseille vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Marseille's recent games and 43% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 1.68 xG and Estac Troyes 0.87 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Estac Troyes attack 0.73 / defence 1.37, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 55% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 38%, Estac Troyes 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.