Marseille 1-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Marseille vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Marseille host Auxerre at Orange Vélodrome in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Marseille at Orange Vélodrome this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Marseille have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Marseille have won 3, Auxerre 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Marseille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Marseille trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Auxerre trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 59% versus Auxerre 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 66% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 2.08 xG and Auxerre 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 1.418 / defence 1.082 | Auxerre attack 0.899 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.190. Marseille carry an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Marseille games / 59 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Marseille 59% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 21%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Auxerre 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Marseille 60% | Auxerre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 59% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Marseille 2.08 / Auxerre 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 1.418 / def 1.082 | Auxerre attack 0.899 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Marseille (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Auxerre xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Marseille vs Auxerre kick off?
Marseille vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Auxerre?
Marseille 1 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Marseille vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Auxerre part of?
Marseille vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 59% chance of winning, Auxerre a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Marseille and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Marseille vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Auxerre?
Record (5 meetings): Marseille 3W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Marseille and Auxerre in?
Marseille (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Marseille's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Marseille's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.80
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Marseille xG
Total xG
3.24
1.16
Auxerre xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
3%
38.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Marseille and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Marseille and 1.16 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Marseille have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 34W 9D 16L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 15W 16D 28L from 59 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Marseille are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Marseille have posted 2.10 PPG from 29 outings (18W 7D 4L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 5W 7D 17L from 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Marseille are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Marseille and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 34W 9D 16L in their last 59 games (1.88 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 15W 16D 28L in their last 59 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Auxerre away?
Marseille's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 2.10 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Marseille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Auxerre won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Marseille's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Marseille
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Marseille have won 4, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Marseille 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Marseille and Auxerre?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Marseille 69%, Auxerre 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Marseille and 55% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Marseille play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Marseille's games and 55% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Marseille vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Marseille's matches and 55% of Auxerre's.
Do Marseille and Auxerre tend to score early?
Marseille have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Auxerre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Auxerre 1-0 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.08 xG and Auxerre 1.16 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Marseille fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.42 / defence 1.08 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 59% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 21%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 66%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.