Lyon 3-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Toulouse at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lyon face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Groupama Stadium plays host to Lyon versus Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 15). Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:05 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lyon have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lyon's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Lyon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lyon, 0 for Toulouse and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended Lyon 2–1 Toulouse — a Lyon win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 64% and Toulouse 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 60% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.18 xG and Toulouse 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.885 / defence 1.455 | Toulouse attack 0.857 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.021. Lyon's defence rating of 1.455 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Toulouse's projected output up. Data: built from Lyon's last 52 games and Toulouse's last 52.
Result probabilities: Lyon 32% | Draw 33% | Toulouse 36%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 3.17 | Draw 3.07 | Toulouse 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Lyon's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lyon 70% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 32% | Draw 33% | Toulouse 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lyon 1.18 / Toulouse 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.885 / def 1.455 | Toulouse attack 0.857 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Toulouse xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lyon vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Lyon vs Toulouse kick off?
Lyon vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Toulouse?
Lyon 3 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Lyon vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Toulouse part of?
Lyon vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 32% chance of winning, Toulouse a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lyon and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lyon vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lyon's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.86x) against Lyon's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Lyon's last 52 games and Toulouse's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
32%
3.17
33%
3.07
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.46
1.27
Toulouse xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lyon vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lyon and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lyon and 1.27 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Lyon have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 12D 21L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 15W 16D 21L from 52 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Lyon against 1.17 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lyon have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 26 home games (10W 8D 8L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 7W 6D 13L from their last 26 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Lyon (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lyon
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Lyon vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Lyon and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 15W 16D 21L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Toulouse away?
Lyon's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.46 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Lyon and Toulouse, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won Lyon 3-0 Toulouse on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Lyon
2
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Lyon vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Toulouse?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lyon have won 5, Toulouse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Toulouse 0-2 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Toulouse?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 65%, Toulouse 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lyon) and 58% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lyon vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lyon and Toulouse matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Lyon's games and 54% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lyon and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lyon's matches and 58% of Toulouse's.
Do Lyon and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Lyon's recent matches and 65% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lyon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Toulouse 3-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.18 xG and Toulouse 1.27 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Toulouse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.89 / defence 1.46 against Toulouse attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 32% | Draw 33% | Toulouse 36%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lyon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 60%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.33 PPG, Toulouse 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 15
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →