Lyon 0-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Lyon welcome Lille to Groupama Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Groupama Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Lyon) versus 1.80 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lyon register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lille in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lyon, 0 for Lille and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 64% and Lille 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 44% | Lille 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.41 xG and Lille 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.122 / defence 0.961 | Lille attack 0.866 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.169. Data: 25 Lyon games / 25 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 46% | Draw 28% | Lille 26%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Lille 3.85. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lyon 70% | Lille 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 46% | Draw 28% | Lille 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Lyon 1.41 / Lille 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.122 / def 0.961 | Lille attack 0.866 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Lyon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Lille xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Lille kick off?
Lyon vs Lille kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Lille?
Lyon 0 - 1 Lille.
Where is Lyon vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Lille part of?
Lyon vs Lille is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 46% chance of winning, Lille a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lyon and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Lyon 0W | Draws 1 | Lille 0W.
What form are Lyon and Lille in?
Lyon (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.57
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.38
0.97
Lille xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lyon and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lyon and 0.97 for Lille, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 25 games, going 10W 9D 6L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (9W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.56 PPG, Lille on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 7W 5D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.28 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lille in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Lille in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 10W 9D 6L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Lille have gone 9W 9D 7L in their last 25 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Lille away?
Lyon's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.00 PPG; Lille away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lyon's record when hosting Lille specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lyon
3
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Lille have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Lille?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lyon at 77%, Lille at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lyon) and 54% (Lille).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Lyon's games and 69% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lyon's recent games and 54% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Lille tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lille in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Lyon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Lyon 0-1 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.41 xG and Lille 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Lille attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 46% | Draw 28% | Lille 26%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 44%, Lille 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.56 PPG, Lille 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.