Lyon 1-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lyon welcome Lille to Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Parc Olympique Lyonnais: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Lyon are significantly better at Parc Olympique Lyonnais than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Lyon) versus 1.50 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Lyon, 2 for Lille and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Lyon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lille in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 57% versus Lille 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 62% | Lille 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 2.00 xG and Lille 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.126 / defence 0.836 | Lille attack 1.129 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.289. Data: 53 Lyon games / 53 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 55% | Draw 22% | Lille 23%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Lille 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lyon 40% | Lille 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 55% | Draw 22% | Lille 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Lyon 2.00 / Lille 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.126 / def 0.836 | Lille attack 1.129 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Lyon (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lille xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Lille kick off?
Lyon vs Lille kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Lille?
Lyon 1 - 0 Lille.
Where is Lyon vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Lille part of?
Lyon vs Lille is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 55% chance of winning, Lille a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lyon and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
Record (9 meetings): Lyon 4W | Draws 3 | Lille 2W.
What form are Lyon and Lille in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Lille (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
55%
1.80
22%
4.63
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.21
1.22
Lille xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
3%
32.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Lyon and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Lyon and 1.22 for Lille, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Lille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 53 games, going 28W 9D 16L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.74 PPG from 53 outings (27W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.75 PPG, Lille on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 18W 2D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.62 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Lille in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 28W 9D 16L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Lille have gone 27W 11D 15L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Lille away?
Lyon's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.15 PPG; Lille away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Lyon or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lille in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lyon's record when hosting Lille specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lyon
3
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Lille have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Lille?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 54%, Lille 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Lyon) and 46% (Lille). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lille in 35%; Lille in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lyon's recent matches and 38% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Lyon's matches and 46% of Lille's.
Do Lyon and Lille tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lille in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Lille 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Lille 1-0 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.00 xG and Lille 1.22 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lille landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.13 / defence 0.84 against Lille attack 1.13 / defence 1.16, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 55% | Draw 22% | Lille 23%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 62%, Lille 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lille's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.75 PPG, Lille 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.