Lyon 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Clermont Foot at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Groupama Stadium, Lyon have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lyon are significantly better at Groupama Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lyon 1.10 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lyon register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Clermont Foot in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lyon have won 1, Clermont Foot 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Lyon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lyon in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 68% and Clermont Foot 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 56% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.50 xG and Clermont Foot 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.108 / defence 0.830 | Clermont Foot attack 0.979 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.330. Data: 54 Lyon games / 54 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 46% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Clermont Foot 3.70. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 70% | Clermont Foot 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 46% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Lyon 1.50 / Clermont Foot 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.108 / def 0.830 | Clermont Foot attack 0.979 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Lyon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Clermont Foot xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lyon vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 January 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Lyon 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lyon vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lyon vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 46% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lyon and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Lyon and Clermont Foot in?
Lyon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.11) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.74
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.58
1.08
Clermont Foot xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lyon and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lyon and 1.08 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 54 games, going 24W 14D 16L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.02 PPG from 54 outings (14W 13D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 16W 7D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.06 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 24W 14D 16L in their last 54 games (1.59 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lyon's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.04 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lyon's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lyon
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Lyon have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 74%, Clermont Foot 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lyon) and 44% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Lyon's games and 44% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lyon's recent games and 44% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Lyon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Lyon 0-1 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.50 xG and Clermont Foot 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Clermont Foot attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 46% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 27%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 56%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.