Lorient 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lorient at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir to take on Lorient. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lorient have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lorient are significantly better at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Lorient) versus 0.70 (Stade Brestois 29). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lorient register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Lorient in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lorient 67% and Stade Brestois 29 92% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 42% | Stade Brestois 29 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.30 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 0.807 / defence 0.943 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.806 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.169. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Lorient's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Lorient games / 12 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 42% | Draw 36% | Stade Brestois 29 22%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Stade Brestois 29 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lorient at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lorient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lorient 60% | Stade Brestois 29 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 42% | Draw 36% | Stade Brestois 29 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Lorient 1.30 / Stade Brestois 29 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 0.807 / def 0.943 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.806 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Lorient (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Stade Brestois 29 xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lorient 1 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 42% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lorient (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lorient's attack rating (0.81) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
42%
2.38
36%
2.76
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.19
0.89
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lorient and 0.89 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lorient's recent record stands at 3W 6D 3L from 12 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 5L across 12 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lorient by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lorient have managed 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Lorient are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lorient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lorient are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.17 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Stade Brestois 29 in 92%.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 3W 6D 3L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 1W 6D 5L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lorient's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 2.20 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lorient's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lorient
1
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29?
From 8 meetings on record, Lorient have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lorient at 60%, Stade Brestois 29 at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Lorient) and 60% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Lorient keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lorient's games and 100% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Lorient's recent games and 60% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Lorient 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Lorient 1-2 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.30 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.89 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 42% | Draw 36% | Stade Brestois 29 22%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Stade Brestois 29 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 42%, Stade Brestois 29 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 92% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Stade Brestois 29 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lorient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.