Lorient 2-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lorient at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lorient welcome Auxerre to Stade du Moustoir. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lorient have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lorient have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stade du Moustoir — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Lorient have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lorient, 2 for Auxerre and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lorient in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 51% versus Auxerre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 53% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.49 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.036 / defence 1.054 | Auxerre attack 0.815 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.180. Data: 23 Lorient games / 57 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 48% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 26%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 3.85. Lorient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lorient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lorient 80% | Auxerre 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 48% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Lorient 1.49 / Auxerre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 1.036 / def 1.054 | Auxerre attack 0.815 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Lorient (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Auxerre xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Auxerre kick off?
Lorient vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stade du Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Auxerre?
Lorient 2 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Lorient vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Auxerre part of?
Lorient vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 48% chance of winning, Auxerre a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lorient and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Lorient 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Lorient and Auxerre in?
Lorient (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lorient's attack at 1.04x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.83
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.50
1.01
Auxerre xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
6%
17.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lorient and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lorient and 1.01 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lorient's recent record stands at 30W 13D 14L from 57 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 28L across 57 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lorient by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lorient have managed 21W 5D 2L from 28 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Lorient are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Auxerre's away record stands at 5W 6D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lorient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lorient are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 30W 13D 14L in their last 57 games (1.81 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 15W 14D 28L in their last 57 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Auxerre away?
Lorient's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 2.43 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Lorient or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lorient have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Auxerre in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lorient's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lorient
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Lorient have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lorient 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 57%, Auxerre 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Lorient) and 54% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lorient keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Auxerre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lorient's games and 54% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lorient vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lorient's matches and 54% of Auxerre's.
Do Lorient and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lorient and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Moustoir, Regular Season - 24, as Lorient and Auxerre drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.49 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Auxerre attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 48% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 26%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 53%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lorient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.