Lille 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Nice travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 20:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lille at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nice — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nice away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lille, 4 for Nice and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Nice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Nice in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 51% versus Nice 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 48% | Nice 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.84 xG and Nice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.032 / defence 0.913 | Nice attack 0.968 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.199. Nice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Lille games / 63 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 55% | Draw 24% | Nice 21%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Nice 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Lille (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Nice lead the H2H ledger, but Lille carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lille 50% | Nice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 55% | Draw 24% | Nice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Lille 1.84 / Nice 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.032 / def 0.913 | Nice attack 0.968 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Lille (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Nice xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Nice kick off?
Lille vs Nice kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Nice?
Lille 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Lille vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Nice part of?
Lille vs Nice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 55% chance of winning, Nice a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nice?
Record (9 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 3 | Nice 4W.
What form are Lille and Nice in?
Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Nice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.03) and Nice's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.11
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Lille xG
Total xG
2.90
1.06
Nice xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
3%
30.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lille and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Lille and 1.06 for Nice, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Nice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Lille have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 33W 14D 16L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Nice's form line: 24W 16D 23L from 63 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.79 PPG, Nice on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lille have posted 2.06 PPG from 31 outings (19W 7D 5L).
On the road, Nice have gone 9W 6D 16L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.59 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Nice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Nice in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 33W 14D 16L in their last 63 games (1.79 PPG), while Nice have gone 24W 16D 23L in their last 63 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Nice away?
Lille's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.06 PPG; Nice away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Lille or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nice in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Nice won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
4
Draws
4
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 2, Nice have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Lille 0-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lille at 64%, Nice at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lille) and 64% (Nice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lille's games and 71% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Lille's matches and 64% of Nice's.
Do Lille and Nice tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nice in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lille's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 30, as Lille and Nice drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.84 xG and Nice 1.06 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lille fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Nice attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 55% | Draw 24% | Nice 21%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Nice 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nice's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.79 PPG, Nice 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.