Lille 1-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Lille (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lille's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Monaco have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monaco are 0.90 PPG clear of Lille in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lille lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 57% versus Monaco 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 49% | Monaco 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 0.95 xG and Monaco 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.767 / defence 0.987 | Monaco attack 1.058 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.219. Lille's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Lille games / 35 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 28% | Draw 28% | Monaco 44%. Fair-value odds: Lille 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Monaco 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lille 40% | Monaco 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 28% | Draw 28% | Monaco 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Lille 0.95 / Monaco 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.767 / def 0.987 | Monaco attack 1.058 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Monaco (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Monaco xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Monaco kick off?
Lille vs Monaco kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Monaco?
Lille 1 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Lille vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Monaco part of?
Lille vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 28% chance of winning, Monaco a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lille and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Monaco?
Record (1 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 1 | Monaco 0W.
What form are Lille and Monaco in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Monaco (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lille's attack at 0.77x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.06x) against Lille's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
28%
3.61
28%
3.51
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Lille xG
Total xG
2.22
1.27
Monaco xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lille and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Lille and 1.27 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Lille have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 13W 12D 10L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Monaco's form line: 18W 8D 9L from 35 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Lille against 1.77 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lille have posted 1.65 PPG from 17 outings (7W 7D 3L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.63 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Monaco
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Monaco in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 13W 12D 10L in their last 35 games (1.46 PPG), while Monaco have gone 18W 8D 9L in their last 35 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Monaco away?
Lille's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.65 PPG; Monaco away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Lille or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Monaco in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lille
3
Draws
2
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 5, Monaco have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Monaco 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Monaco?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 53%, Monaco 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lille) and 47% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lille have failed to score in 29% of games; Monaco in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lille's recent matches and 53% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lille's recent games and 47% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Monaco tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Monaco in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Lille 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Lille 1-2 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 0.95 xG and Monaco 1.27 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Monaco attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 28% | Draw 28% | Monaco 44%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 49%, Monaco 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.46 PPG, Monaco 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.