Lille 1-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lille face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Le Havre meet at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Lille (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Lille have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Le Havre have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lille's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Lille, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Le Havre — Le Havre have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Lille 3–0 Le Havre — a Lille win.
The head-to-head data gives Lille an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Le Havre — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 56% versus Le Havre 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 48% | Le Havre 50%). Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Lille recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.98 xG and Le Havre 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.184 / defence 0.918 | Le Havre attack 0.825 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.298. Data: built from Lille's last 54 games and Le Havre's last 54.
Result probabilities: Lille 58% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 16%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.71 | Draw 3.90 | Le Havre 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lille (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 80% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 58% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Lille 1.98 / Le Havre 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.184 / def 0.918 | Le Havre attack 0.825 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Lille (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Le Havre xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Lille vs Le Havre kick off?
Lille vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Le Havre?
Lille 1 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Lille vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Le Havre part of?
Lille vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 58% chance of winning, Le Havre a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lille vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.18) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.82x) against Lille's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 54 games and Le Havre's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.90
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Lille xG
Total xG
2.96
0.98
Le Havre xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
2%
45.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lille and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Lille and 0.98 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille's recent record stands at 25W 19D 10L from 54 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 30L across 54 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lille have managed 17W 7D 3L from their last 27 home games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Le Havre's away record stands at 3W 11D 13L across their last 27 away games, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.91 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Lille (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 25W 19D 10L in their last 54 games (1.74 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 11W 13D 30L in their last 54 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Le Havre away?
Lille's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.15 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Lille or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Le Havre in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won Lille 3-0 Le Havre on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lille
1
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Le Havre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 5, Le Havre have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lille and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Lille 1-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Le Havre?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 59%, Le Havre 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lille) and 44% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Le Havre in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Le Havre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lille's games and 52% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lille and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lille's recent games and 44% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Lille's recent matches and 59% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Lille 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Lille 1-2 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.98 xG and Le Havre 0.98 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lille fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Le Havre outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 58% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 16%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Le Havre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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