Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Clermont Foot meet at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Current Form
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's home record at Stade Pierre-Mauroy: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Lille against 1.40 for Clermont Foot. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lille, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 65% versus Clermont Foot 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 50% | Clermont Foot 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.21 xG and Clermont Foot 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.888 / defence 1.324 | Clermont Foot attack 0.787 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.159. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Lille games / 26 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 36% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 36%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Lille 70% | Clermont Foot 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 36% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Lille 1.21 / Clermont Foot 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.888 / def 1.324 | Clermont Foot attack 0.787 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Clermont Foot xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lille vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Lille 4 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lille vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lille vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 36% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lille and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Lille and Clermont Foot in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.89) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.79x) against Lille's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.63
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lille xG
Total xG
2.42
1.21
Clermont Foot xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lille and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lille and 1.21 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille come into this having played 26 games, going 10W 9D 7L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lille's home form reads 5W 5D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.04 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 10W 9D 7L in their last 26 games (1.50 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lille's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.67 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 4-0 on 6 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lille
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Clermont Foot?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 67%, Clermont Foot 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lille) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Lille's recent matches and 33% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lille's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lille run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Clermont Foot 4-0 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.21 xG and Clermont Foot 1.21 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.89 / defence 1.32 against Clermont Foot attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 36% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 36%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 50%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.