Le Havre 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 29 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 1.20 PPG versus Stade Brestois 29's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Le Havre register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Stade Brestois 29 have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Le Havre.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
It is worth noting that Stade Brestois 29 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 63% versus Stade Brestois 29 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 60% | Stade Brestois 29 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.76 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.936 / defence 1.204 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.092 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.279. Data: 43 Le Havre games / 43 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 22% | Stade Brestois 29 37%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Stade Brestois 29 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 100% | Stade Brestois 29 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 22% | Stade Brestois 29 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Le Havre 1.76 / Stade Brestois 29 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.936 / def 1.204 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.092 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Stade Brestois 29 xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 October 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 40% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (4 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 0 | Stade Brestois 29 4W.
What form are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.94x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
40%
2.47
22%
4.45
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.44
1.68
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
6%
15.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.68 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 7D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.37 PPG from 43 outings (17W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.00 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 4W 4D 13L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.53 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Le Havre have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 12W 7D 24L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 17W 8D 18L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Stade Brestois 29's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.76 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
0
Draws
5
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 67%, Stade Brestois 29 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Le Havre and 67% for Stade Brestois 29. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 29% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Le Havre's games and 57% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Le Havre's matches and 67% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Stade Brestois 29 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Stade Brestois 29 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.76 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.68 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 40% | Draw 22% | Stade Brestois 29 37%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 60%, Stade Brestois 29 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.00 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.