Le Havre 1-5 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Le Havre welcome Rennes to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.
Rennes — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Le Havre 1.40 PPG, Rennes 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Le Havre, 2 for Rennes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Rennes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rennes trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Rennes 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Rennes 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.09 xG and Rennes 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.798 / defence 1.366 | Rennes attack 1.055 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.418. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Le Havre games / 62 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 20% | Draw 21% | Rennes 59%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Rennes 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 50% | Rennes 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 20% | Draw 21% | Rennes 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Le Havre 1.09 / Rennes 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.798 / def 1.366 | Rennes attack 1.055 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Rennes (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Rennes xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Rennes kick off?
Le Havre vs Rennes kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Rennes?
Le Havre 1 - 5 Rennes.
Where is Le Havre vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Rennes part of?
Le Havre vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 20% chance of winning, Rennes a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Le Havre and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Rennes?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Rennes 2W.
What form are Le Havre and Rennes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Rennes (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
20%
5.11
21%
4.76
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.13
2.04
Rennes xG
5.11
20%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
13%
7.72
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
3%
39.44
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Le Havre and 2.04 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Rennes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 62 games, going 15W 14D 33L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.26 PPG from 62 outings (22W 12D 28L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 0.95 PPG, Rennes on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 9W 3D 18L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.47 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Rennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Rennes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 15W 14D 33L in their last 62 games (0.95 PPG), while Rennes have gone 22W 12D 28L in their last 62 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Rennes away?
Rennes's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.00 PPG; Rennes away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Rennes won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Rennes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rennes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 43%, Rennes 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Le Havre) and 50% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 47% of games; Rennes in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Le Havre's recent matches and 47% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Rennes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rennes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Le Havre 1-5 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.09 xG and Rennes 2.04 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Rennes outscored their 2.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.80 / defence 1.37 against Rennes attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 20% | Draw 21% | Rennes 59%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Rennes 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.95 PPG, Rennes 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.