Le Havre 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Havre face Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Paris FC at Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 7 December 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris FC — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 1.10 PPG versus Paris FC's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Le Havre's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Le Havre have won 0, Paris FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2023, ended Le Havre 0–0 Paris FC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 58% versus Paris FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 56% | Paris FC 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Le Havre surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Paris FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.48 xG and Paris FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.785 / defence 1.040 | Paris FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.155. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.48. Data: built from Le Havre's last 48 games and Paris FC's last 14.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.33 | Draw 3.91 | Paris FC 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 80% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 7 December 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Le Havre 1.48 / Paris FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.785 / def 1.040 | Paris FC attack 1.021 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Paris FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Paris FC kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris FC kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris FC part of?
Le Havre vs Paris FC is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 43% chance of winning, Paris FC a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Le Havre and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Le Havre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.79) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 48 games and Paris FC's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.91
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.70
1.23
Paris FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.23 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 9D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.75 PPG from 48 outings (25W 9D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 5D 14L across their last 24 home games, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 24 away games (10W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 13W 9D 26L in their last 48 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 25W 9D 14L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.83 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
4
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 0, Paris FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Paris FC 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 62%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Le Havre) and 46% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 33%; Le Havre have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Paris FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Le Havre's games and 50% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Le Havre and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Le Havre's recent games and 46% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Le Havre's recent matches and 71% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Paris FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.48 xG and Paris FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against Paris FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 43% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 31%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 56%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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