Le Havre 1-2 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Marseille make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Le Havre's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Le Havre's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Marseille have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Marseille's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Marseille are 0.60 PPG clear of Le Havre over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Le Havre, 1 for Marseille and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Le Havre 0–3 Marseille — a Marseille win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Marseille half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Marseille 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 35% | Marseille 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Le Havre surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Marseille have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.16 xG and Marseille 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.761 / defence 0.954 | Marseille attack 0.896 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.392. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Le Havre's last 33 games and Marseille's last 71.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 35% | Draw 28% | Marseille 37%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.86 | Draw 3.52 | Marseille 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Marseille are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Marseille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Le Havre 40% (last 10 home games) | Marseille 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 35% | Draw 28% | Marseille 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Le Havre 1.16 / Marseille 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.761 / def 0.954 | Marseille attack 0.896 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Marseille (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Marseille xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Marseille kick off?
Le Havre vs Marseille kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Marseille?
Le Havre 1 - 2 Marseille.
Where is Le Havre vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Marseille part of?
Le Havre vs Marseille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 35% chance of winning, Marseille a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Le Havre and Marseille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Le Havre vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.76x the league average against Marseille's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (0.90x) against Le Havre's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 33 games and Marseille's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.52
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.35
1.19
Marseille xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.19 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre's recent record stands at 27W 26D 18L from 71 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 34W 18D 19L across 71 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Le Havre against 1.69 for Marseille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 17W 9D 9L from their last 35 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 14W 8D 13L across their last 35 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.65 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Marseille
Current Season
Le Havre (Home) vs Marseille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Current Season
Marseille
Current Season
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Marseille in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 27W 26D 18L in their last 71 games (1.51 PPG), while Marseille have gone 34W 18D 19L in their last 71 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Marseille away?
Le Havre's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.71 PPG; Marseille away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Marseille in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Le Havre and Marseille, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Marseille have taken the most recent 7 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won Marseille 5-1 Le Havre on 5 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Le Havre
0
Draws
7
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Marseille?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 0, Marseille have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Marseille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Marseille 4-3 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 34%, Marseille 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Le Havre) and 49% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 37% of games; Marseille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Marseille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Le Havre's recent matches and 51% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Marseille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Le Havre's recent games and 49% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Marseille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Le Havre's recent matches and 74% of Marseille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Le Havre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.16 xG and Marseille 1.19 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.76 / defence 0.95 against Marseille attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 35% | Draw 28% | Marseille 37%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 35%, Marseille 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Marseille's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.51 PPG, Marseille 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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