Le Havre vs Lyon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Lyon at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade Océane — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lyon away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Le Havre, 3 for Lyon and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Lyon trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Lyon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Lyon 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.87 xG and Lyon 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.703 / defence 0.918 | Lyon attack 0.922 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.304. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lyon's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Le Havre games / 40 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 28% | Draw 32% | Lyon 40%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Lyon 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Lyon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 28% | Draw 32% | Lyon 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Le Havre 0.87 / Lyon 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.703 / def 0.918 | Lyon attack 0.922 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Lyon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Lyon xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lyon kick off?
Le Havre vs Lyon is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stade Océane.
Where is Le Havre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lyon part of?
Le Havre vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 28% chance of winning, Lyon a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Le Havre and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
Record (7 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 3 | Lyon 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.70) and Lyon's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
28%
3.57
32%
3.16
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.97
1.10
Lyon xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.4 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.10 for Lyon, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 40 games, going 7W 16D 17L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.78 PPG from 40 outings (21W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 9D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.60 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 17L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Lyon have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.20 PPG; Lyon away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lyon in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Lyon runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
From 7 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 55%, Lyon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Le Havre) and 50% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Lyon in 45%; Le Havre have failed to score in 40% of games; Lyon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lyon tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lyon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.