Le Havre 1-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Le Havre welcome Auxerre to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Le Havre: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Auxerre, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Le Havre and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Auxerre 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.56 xG and Auxerre 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.703 / defence 0.918 | Auxerre attack 1.027 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.304. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Le Havre games / 40 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 30%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 3.33. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Le Havre dominate the H2H record, yet Auxerre are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Le Havre 1.56 / Auxerre 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.703 / def 0.918 | Auxerre attack 1.027 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Auxerre xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Auxerre kick off?
Le Havre vs Auxerre kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Le Havre 1 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Le Havre vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Auxerre part of?
Le Havre vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 45% chance of winning, Auxerre a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Le Havre and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 4W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.70) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.89
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.79
1.23
Auxerre xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.23 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 40 games, going 7W 16D 17L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.00 PPG from 40 outings (10W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 0.92 PPG, Auxerre on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 9D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (2W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 17L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Auxerre away?
Le Havre's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.20 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Auxerre runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Le Havre
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
From 7 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 4, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Le Havre 1-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 55%, Auxerre 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Le Havre) and 50% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 40% of games; Auxerre in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Le Havre's games and 55% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Auxerre tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Le Havre 1-3 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.56 xG and Auxerre 1.23 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.70 / defence 0.92 against Auxerre attack 1.03 / defence 1.42, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 45% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 30%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Auxerre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.92 PPG, Auxerre 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.