Estac Troyes 1-2 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Estac Troyes take on Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Paris Saint Germain travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.71 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Paris Saint Germain attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Estac Troyes games / 0 Paris Saint Germain games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 21% | Draw 41% | Paris Saint Germain 38%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Paris Saint Germain 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 21% | Draw 41% | Paris Saint Germain 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Estac Troyes 0.71 / Paris Saint Germain 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Paris Saint Germain attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Paris Saint Germain xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Estac Troyes 1 - 2 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 21% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.85x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Paris Saint Germain xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.00 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Pre-Season
Paris Saint Germain
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Estac Troyes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Estac Troyes 1-2 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.71 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Paris Saint Germain attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 21% | Draw 41% | Paris Saint Germain 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Paris Saint Germain win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.