Clermont Foot 0-2 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Strasbourg meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 4D 3L this season (9 games, 1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at Stade Gabriel Montpied than their overall form suggests.
Strasbourg's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's away record: 3W 3D 3L from 9 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Strasbourg arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 45% versus Strasbourg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 50% | Strasbourg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.88 xG and Strasbourg 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.825 / defence 1.120 | Strasbourg attack 1.013 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.205. Data: 20 Clermont Foot games / 20 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 31% | Strasbourg 46%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Strasbourg 2.17. Strasbourg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 56% | Strasbourg 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 31% | Strasbourg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Clermont Foot 0.88 / Strasbourg 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.825 / def 1.120 | Strasbourg attack 1.013 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Strasbourg xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Clermont Foot 0 - 2 Strasbourg.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg part of?
Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 22% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Clermont Foot and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Strasbourg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Strasbourg in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.82x the league average against Strasbourg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (1.01x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
22%
4.46
31%
3.21
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.25
1.37
Strasbourg xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.47
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.5 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.37 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 4W 6D 10L from 20 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 6L across 20 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Strasbourg by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 2W 4D 3L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.95 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Strasbourg away?
Strasbourg's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.11 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
4
Draws
2
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Strasbourg?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Strasbourg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 56%, Strasbourg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Clermont Foot) and 44% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Strasbourg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Clermont Foot's games and 56% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 44% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Clermont Foot 0-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.88 xG and Strasbourg 1.37 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Strasbourg attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 31% | Strasbourg 46%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 50%, Strasbourg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Strasbourg's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.