Clermont Foot 1-3 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Clermont Foot take on Rennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Clermont Foot welcome Rennes to Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1 (matchday 17). Kick-off is Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Clermont Foot's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Rennes have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Rennes have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 0.80 (Rennes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Clermont Foot have won 2, Rennes 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2023, ended Clermont Foot 0–2 Rennes — a Rennes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rennes in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 50% versus Rennes 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 46% | Rennes 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Clermont Foot surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Rennes have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Rennes surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Clermont Foot recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.72 xG and Rennes 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.605 / defence 1.016 | Rennes attack 0.701 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.032. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.605 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Rennes's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 54 games and Rennes's last 54.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 42% | Rennes 30%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.50 | Draw 2.39 | Rennes 3.39. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS Yes probability 29% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Clermont Foot's lower xG of 0.72 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.46 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Rennes's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 20% (last 10 home games) | Rennes 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 17 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 42% | Rennes 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% (Under 82%) | BTTS Yes 29% (No 71%) | xG Clermont Foot 0.72 / Rennes 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.605 / def 1.016 | Rennes attack 0.701 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Rennes xG
29%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rennes FAQs
What time does Clermont Foot vs Rennes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Rennes kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Clermont Foot 1 - 3 Rennes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Rennes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Rennes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 17) (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 29% chance of winning, Rennes a 30% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Clermont Foot and Rennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (71%).
Will Clermont Foot vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (82%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.60) and Rennes's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Clermont Foot's last 54 games and Rennes's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-0 (15.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.50
42%
2.39
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.46
0.74
Rennes xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.39
42%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.46
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.3 | 17.2 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.74 for Rennes, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 13D 22L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.56 PPG from 54 outings (24W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.30 PPG, Rennes on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Clermont Foot's home form reads 10W 5D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.65 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rennes
Blended
Clermont Foot (Home) vs Rennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rennes Form FAQs
What form are Clermont Foot and Rennes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 19W 13D 22L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while Rennes have gone 24W 12D 18L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Rennes away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.35 PPG; Rennes away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Rennes have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Sep 2021, when Rennes won Rennes 6-0 Clermont Foot.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rennes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Clermont Foot have won 2, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Rennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 38%, Rennes 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Clermont Foot) and 46% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 42% of games; Rennes in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Rennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Clermont Foot and Rennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 62% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Clermont Foot and Rennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 46% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Rennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 69% of Rennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Clermont Foot 1-3 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.72 xG and Rennes 0.74 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rennes outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.60 / defence 1.02 against Rennes attack 0.70 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 42% | Rennes 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 46%, Rennes 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.30 PPG, Rennes 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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