Clermont Foot 1-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Reims have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.70 for Reims. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Clermont Foot 1W, Reims 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 4–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 51% versus Reims 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 49% | Reims 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.80 xG and Reims 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.770 / defence 1.213 | Reims attack 0.842 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.263. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Reims's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Clermont Foot games / 70 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 30% | Reims 47%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Reims 2.13. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 50% | Reims 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 30% | Reims 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Clermont Foot 0.80 / Reims 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.770 / def 1.213 | Reims attack 0.842 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Reims (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Reims xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Reims kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Clermont Foot 1 - 0 Reims.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Reims part of?
Clermont Foot vs Reims is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 23% chance of winning, Reims a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Clermont Foot and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Reims?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 1 | Reims 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Reims in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Reims (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.84x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
23%
4.39
30%
3.36
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.09
1.29
Reims xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
6%
15.92
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.9 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.29 for Reims, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 22W 16D 32L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Reims's form line: 22W 27D 21L from 70 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.33 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.11 PPG from 35 outings (10W 9D 16L).
On the road, Reims have gone 10W 16D 9L from 35 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.19 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Reims in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 22W 16D 32L in their last 70 games (1.17 PPG), while Reims have gone 22W 27D 21L in their last 70 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.11 PPG; Reims away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Reims in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Reims have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
4
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Reims have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 60%, Reims 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Clermont Foot) and 34% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 34%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 29% of games; Reims in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 49% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 34% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Reims tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Reims in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Reims 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Reims 1-0 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.80 xG and Reims 1.29 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reims landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.77 / defence 1.21 against Reims attack 0.84 / defence 0.76, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 23% | Draw 30% | Reims 47%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 49%, Reims 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Reims's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.17 PPG, Reims 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.