Clermont Foot 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Clermont Foot welcome Nice to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nice are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Nice and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 50% versus Nice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 52% | Nice 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.10 xG and Nice 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.809 / defence 1.388 | Nice attack 0.876 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.427. Data: 40 Clermont Foot games / 40 Nice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 28% | Nice 50%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Nice 2.00. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 80% | Nice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 28% | Nice 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Clermont Foot 1.10 / Nice 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.809 / def 1.388 | Nice attack 0.876 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Nice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Nice xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Nice kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Clermont Foot 1 - 0 Nice.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Nice part of?
Clermont Foot vs Nice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 22% chance of winning, Nice a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Clermont Foot and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nice?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Nice 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Nice in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.81) and Nice's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
22%
4.55
28%
3.59
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.83
1.74
Nice xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
4%
25.77
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.74 for Nice, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 9D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.72 PPG from 40 outings (20W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Clermont Foot's home form reads 4W 6D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.35 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Nice in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Nice have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.90 PPG; Nice away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Nice in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Nice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Nice 0-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Nice?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 65%, Nice 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Clermont Foot) and 45% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Nice in 45%; Nice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 30% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 45% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Nice tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Nice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Nice 1-0 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.10 xG and Nice 1.74 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nice landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.81 / defence 1.39 against Nice attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 28% | Nice 50%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 52%, Nice 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.