Clermont Foot 0-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Clermont Foot welcome Nice to Stade Gabriel-Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel-Montpied: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at Stade Gabriel-Montpied than their overall form suggests.
Nice — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nice are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Nice and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 54% versus Nice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Nice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.77 xG and Nice 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.715 / defence 0.989 | Nice attack 1.086 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.168. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nice's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Clermont Foot games / 47 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 33% | Nice 46%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Nice 2.17. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Clermont Foot dominate the H2H record, yet Nice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 40% | Nice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 33% | Nice 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Clermont Foot 0.77 / Nice 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.715 / def 0.989 | Nice attack 1.086 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Nice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Nice xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Nice kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Nice kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Nice.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Nice part of?
Clermont Foot vs Nice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 21% chance of winning, Nice a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Clermont Foot and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nice?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 3W | Draws 0 | Nice 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Nice in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Nice (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.71) and Nice's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
21%
4.77
33%
3.03
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.02
1.25
Nice xG
4.77
21%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.72
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 16.6 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.25 for Nice, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot come into this having played 46 games, going 18W 10D 18L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.65 PPG from 46 outings (20W 16D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.39 PPG, Nice on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Clermont Foot's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.77 points per game from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.24 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Nice in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Nice have gone 20W 16D 10L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.41 PPG; Nice away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Nice in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Nice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Nice 0-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Nice?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 46%, Nice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Clermont Foot) and 41% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Nice in 32%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 54% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 41% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Nice tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Nice in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.77 xG and Nice 1.25 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.71 / defence 0.99 against Nice attack 1.09 / defence 0.74, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 33% | Nice 46%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Nice 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.39 PPG, Nice 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.