Clermont Foot 1-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Montpellier at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Clermont Foot welcome Montpellier to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Montpellier — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG, Montpellier 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Clermont Foot, 1 for Montpellier and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Clermont Foot trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Montpellier trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 53% versus Montpellier 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 51% | Montpellier 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.63 xG and Montpellier 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.857 / defence 1.214 | Montpellier attack 1.054 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.425. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Clermont Foot games / 51 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 34% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 42%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Montpellier 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Montpellier 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 34% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Clermont Foot 1.63 / Montpellier 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.857 / def 1.214 | Montpellier attack 1.054 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Montpellier xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Montpellier kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Montpellier kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Montpellier part of?
Clermont Foot vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 34% chance of winning, Montpellier a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Clermont Foot and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Montpellier?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Montpellier in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Montpellier (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.86) and Montpellier's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.21
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.46
1.82
Montpellier xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
16%
6.19
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
6%
18.10
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.82 for Montpellier, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 28L across 51 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.06 PPG, Montpellier on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 7W 6D 12L from 25 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 6W 2D 17L across 25 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.39 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 16W 7D 28L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Montpellier away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.08 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
4
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Montpellier?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Montpellier have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Montpellier 1-2 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 64%, Montpellier 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Clermont Foot) and 56% (Montpellier). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Montpellier?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Clermont Foot's games and 48% of Montpellier's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Clermont Foot's matches and 56% of Montpellier's.
Do Clermont Foot and Montpellier tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Montpellier share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Montpellier finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.63 xG and Montpellier 1.82 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Montpellier landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Montpellier attack 1.05 / defence 1.27, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 34% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 42%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 51%, Montpellier 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.06 PPG, Montpellier 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.