Clermont Foot 1-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lille make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 4D 3L across 9 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel Montpied this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lille have collected 1.56 PPG across 9 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lille have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.56 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.11 for Clermont Foot, 1.56 for Lille — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Lille in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 56% and Lille 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 56% | Lille 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.39 xG and Lille 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.906 / defence 1.271 | Lille attack 0.880 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.293. Lille bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Clermont Foot games / 9 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 33% | Draw 32% | Lille 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Lille 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 75% | Lille 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 33% | Draw 32% | Lille 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 61% | xG Clermont Foot 1.39 / Lille 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.906 / def 1.271 | Lille attack 0.880 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Lille (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Lille xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Lille kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Lille kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Clermont Foot 1 - 0 Lille.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Lille part of?
Clermont Foot vs Lille is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 33% chance of winning, Lille a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Clermont Foot and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Lille in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Lille (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.91) and Lille's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.88x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
33%
3.07
32%
3.11
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.83
1.45
Lille xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
8%
13.05
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.45 for Lille, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 2W 4D 3L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Lille have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.44 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Lille in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Lille have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Lille away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.25 PPG; Lille away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 4-0 on 6 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Clermont Foot, 75% for Lille — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Clermont Foot) and 50% (Lille).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Clermont Foot's games and 75% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 50% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Lille tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lille in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Lille 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Lille 1-0 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.39 xG and Lille 1.45 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.91 / defence 1.27 against Lille attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 33% | Draw 32% | Lille 35%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 56%, Lille 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.