Clermont Foot 1-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Bordeaux at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Clermont Foot are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bordeaux in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 1, Bordeaux 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Clermont Foot trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bordeaux trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 44% and Bordeaux 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Bordeaux 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 2.00 xG and Bordeaux 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.798 / defence 1.244 | Bordeaux attack 0.932 / defence 2.137. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.178. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 2.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 2.137 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Clermont Foot games / 25 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 52% | Draw 22% | Bordeaux 26%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Bordeaux 3.85. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Bordeaux 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 52% | Draw 22% | Bordeaux 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Clermont Foot 2.00 / Bordeaux 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.798 / def 1.244 | Bordeaux attack 0.932 / def 2.137 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bordeaux xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux part of?
Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 52% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Clermont Foot and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Bordeaux in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (2.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.53
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.36
1.36
Bordeaux xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
4%
28.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.36 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 7W 6D 12L from 25 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 12L across 25 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.08 PPG, Bordeaux on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.48 scored and 2.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 76%.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 4W 9D 12L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Bordeaux away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.08 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
0
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Bordeaux have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Bordeaux?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 58%, Bordeaux 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Clermont Foot and 92% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Clermont Foot's games and 67% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Clermont Foot's matches and 92% of Bordeaux's.
Do Clermont Foot and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Bordeaux share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 26, as Clermont Foot and Bordeaux drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 2.00 xG and Bordeaux 1.36 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Bordeaux attack 0.93 / defence 2.14, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 52% | Draw 22% | Bordeaux 26%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Bordeaux 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.08 PPG, Bordeaux 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.