Auxerre 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Auxerre, 0.50 for Stade Brestois 29 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 63% and Stade Brestois 29 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Stade Brestois 29 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.13 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.759 / defence 1.211 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.990 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.473. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Auxerre games / 46 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 24% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 52%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Stade Brestois 29 1.92. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Stade Brestois 29 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 24% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Auxerre 1.13 / Stade Brestois 29 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.759 / def 1.211 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.990 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Stade Brestois 29 xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 24% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.76) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.99x) against Auxerre's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
24%
4.16
24%
4.17
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.90
1.76
Stade Brestois 29 xG
4.16
24%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
24.28
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.76 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 21W 14D 11L from 46 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 21L across 46 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 11W 6D 6L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.24 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Stade Brestois 29 in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 21W 14D 11L in their last 46 games (1.67 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Auxerre's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.70 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Auxerre, 74% for Stade Brestois 29 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Auxerre) and 52% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Auxerre's games and 74% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Auxerre's recent games and 52% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.13 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.76 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 24% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 52%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.