Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 68% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Saint Etienne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Auxerre have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Saint Etienne's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.30 PPG versus Saint Etienne's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Auxerre have won 1, Saint Etienne 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Auxerre 1–3 Saint Etienne — a Saint Etienne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 54% versus Saint Etienne 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 55% | Saint Etienne 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 2.15 xG and Saint Etienne 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.919 / defence 0.795 | Saint Etienne attack 0.725 / defence 1.550. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.283. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.550 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Saint Etienne's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Auxerre have a tight defence (rating 0.795), which is pulling Saint Etienne's projected output down. Data: built from Auxerre's last 18 games and Saint Etienne's last 18.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 68% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 10%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.47 | Draw 4.47 | Saint Etienne 10.41. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (68%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 40% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 68% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Auxerre 2.15 / Saint Etienne 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.919 / def 0.795 | Saint Etienne attack 0.725 / def 1.550 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Saint Etienne xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Auxerre vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 24 January 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne part of?
Auxerre vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 68% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Auxerre and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Auxerre vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 18 games and Saint Etienne's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
68%
1.47
22%
4.47
10%
10.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.89
0.74
Saint Etienne xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
10.41
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
12%
8.62
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
1%
89.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.74 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 27W 15D 14L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Saint Etienne's form line: 25W 11D 20L from 56 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.71 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 2.11 PPG from their last 28 home games (17W 8D 3L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 9W 6D 13L from their last 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 27W 15D 14L in their last 56 games (1.71 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 25W 11D 20L in their last 56 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Saint Etienne away?
Auxerre's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.11 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Nov 2023, when Auxerre won Auxerre 5-2 Saint Etienne.
Auxerre's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2025: Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 43%, Saint Etienne 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Auxerre) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 36%; Saint Etienne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Auxerre's recent matches and 36% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Auxerre's recent matches and 71% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 2.15 xG and Saint Etienne 0.74 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Saint Etienne attack 0.72 / defence 1.55, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 68% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 10%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Saint Etienne 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.71 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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