Auxerre 4-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Auxerre at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Rennes.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Rennes make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1 (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Auxerre's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Auxerre at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Rennes (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Rennes away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Rennes edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Auxerre 0–0 Rennes — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 58% and Rennes 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 58% | Rennes 58%). Note also that Rennes surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Auxerre recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.68 xG and Rennes 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.028 / defence 1.028 | Rennes attack 0.935 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.371. Data: built from Auxerre's last 9 games and Rennes's last 43.

Result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Rennes 29%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.24 | Draw 3.77 | Rennes 3.47. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Rennes's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 40% (last 10 home games) | Rennes 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights