Auxerre 0-0 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 6 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Auxerre stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Auxerre at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris Saint Germain's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 2.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Auxerre, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Auxerre 1–2 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 55% and Paris Saint Germain 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 57% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.38 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.109 / defence 0.871 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.393 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.338. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.393, which lifts their away xG to 1.62. Data: built from Auxerre's last 13 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 47.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 43%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.07 | Draw 4.12 | Paris Saint Germain 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 30% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 6 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Auxerre 1.38 / Paris Saint Germain 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.109 / def 0.871 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.393 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Paris Saint Germain xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 6 December 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 33% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 13 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
33%
3.07
24%
4.12
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.01
1.62
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.62 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 47 games, going 26W 10D 11L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.32 PPG from 47 outings (32W 13D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 17W 4D 2L across their last 23 home games, a 2.39 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.48 points per game from their last 23 away games (17W 6D 0L).
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.51 scored and 0.94 conceded. Auxerre's scoring rate against Paris Saint Germain's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 66%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 26W 10D 11L in their last 47 games (1.87 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 32W 13D 2L in their last 47 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.39 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Auxerre.
Auxerre's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2026: Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 48%, Paris Saint Germain 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Auxerre) and 52% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Auxerre's recent matches and 61% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Auxerre's matches and 52% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Auxerre's recent matches and 74% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 14, as Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.38 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.39 / defence 0.81, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 33% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 43%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 57%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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