Auxerre 1-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Auxerre welcome Nantes to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Nantes — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 2 for Nantes and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Nantes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Nantes in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 54% versus Nantes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 56% | Nantes 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.57 xG and Nantes 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.833 / defence 0.999 | Nantes attack 0.919 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.412. Nantes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Auxerre games / 66 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 25% | Nantes 32%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Nantes 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Nantes 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 25% | Nantes 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Auxerre 1.57 / Nantes 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.833 / def 0.999 | Nantes attack 0.919 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Nantes xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Nantes kick off?
Auxerre vs Nantes kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Nantes?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Auxerre vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Nantes part of?
Auxerre vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 44% chance of winning, Nantes a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Auxerre and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nantes?
Record (3 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Nantes 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Nantes in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Nantes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Nantes's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.05
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.86
1.30
Nantes xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.30 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 31W 17D 18L from 66 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 33L across 66 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 19W 9D 5L from 33 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.98 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Nantes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 31W 17D 18L in their last 66 games (1.67 PPG), while Nantes have gone 16W 17D 33L in their last 66 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Nantes away?
Auxerre's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.00 PPG; Nantes away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nantes in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nantes?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Nantes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 48%, Nantes 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Auxerre) and 52% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Nantes in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Nantes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Auxerre's recent matches and 61% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Auxerre's recent games and 52% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Nantes tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nantes in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Nantes finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.57 xG and Nantes 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Nantes attack 0.92 / defence 1.30, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 44% | Draw 25% | Nantes 32%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 56%, Nantes 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.