Auxerre 1-3 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lorient at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Lorient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Lorient at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Lorient — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lorient have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lorient's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lorient are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lorient in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 62% versus Lorient 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 53% | Lorient 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.32 xG and Lorient 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.756 / defence 1.105 | Lorient attack 0.978 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.446. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Auxerre games / 45 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 32% | Draw 26% | Lorient 42%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Lorient 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lorient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 50% | Lorient 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 32% | Draw 26% | Lorient 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Auxerre 1.32 / Lorient 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.756 / def 1.105 | Lorient attack 0.978 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Lorient (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Lorient xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lorient kick off?
Auxerre vs Lorient kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lorient?
Auxerre 1 - 3 Lorient.
Where is Auxerre vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lorient part of?
Auxerre vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 32% chance of winning, Lorient a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Auxerre and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lorient?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Lorient in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Lorient (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.76x the league average against Lorient's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.84
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.88
1.56
Lorient xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.56 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 21W 14D 10L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lorient's form line: 13W 13D 19L from 45 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lorient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lorient.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L).
On the road, Lorient have gone 4W 6D 12L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.09 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Lorient
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lorient in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 21W 14D 10L in their last 45 games (1.71 PPG), while Lorient have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lorient away?
Auxerre's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.77 PPG; Lorient away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lorient in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Lorient runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Lorient specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
1
Draws
1
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lorient?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Lorient have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lorient 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lorient?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Lorient see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 59%, Lorient 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Auxerre) and 54% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lorient in 32%; Lorient in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Auxerre's recent games and 54% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lorient tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Lorient in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lorient cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Auxerre 1-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.32 xG and Lorient 1.56 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lorient outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Lorient attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 32% | Draw 26% | Lorient 42%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Lorient 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lorient's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Lorient winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.