Auxerre 0-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Lille travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025, 20:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Auxerre 1.50 PPG, Lille 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 0, Lille 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lille trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 56% versus Lille 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 58% | Lille 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.23 xG and Lille 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.009 / defence 0.880 | Lille attack 1.023 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.276. Lille's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 16 Auxerre games / 50 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 37% | Draw 31% | Lille 33%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Lille 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Lille 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 37% | Draw 31% | Lille 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Auxerre 1.23 / Lille 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.009 / def 0.880 | Lille attack 1.023 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Lille xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lille kick off?
Auxerre vs Lille kicked off at 20:05 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lille?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Lille.
Where is Auxerre vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lille part of?
Auxerre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 37% chance of winning, Lille a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Auxerre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Lille 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Lille in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Lille (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.27
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.38
1.15
Lille xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.15 for Lille, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 26W 12D 12L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 23W 18D 9L from 50 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.80 PPG, Lille on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 2.28 PPG from 25 outings (17W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lille have gone 8W 11D 6L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded. Auxerre's scoring rate against Lille's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Lille in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 26W 12D 12L in their last 50 games (1.80 PPG), while Lille have gone 23W 18D 9L in their last 50 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lille away?
Auxerre's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.28 PPG; Lille away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lille in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 48%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Auxerre) and 40% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lille in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Auxerre's recent matches and 52% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Auxerre's recent games and 40% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lille tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lille in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 17, as Auxerre and Lille drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.23 xG and Lille 1.15 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lille landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Lille attack 1.02 / defence 0.77, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 37% | Draw 31% | Lille 33%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 58%, Lille 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lille's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.80 PPG, Lille 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.